Solar PV Prices Expected to Rise Following Elimination of Export Tax Rebates
- markallenperez
- Jan 16
- 1 min read
China is set to phase out value-added tax (VAT) rebates on exported photovoltaic (PV) products starting April 1, 2026, signaling a major shift away from subsidizing solar exports. VAT rebates for battery products will be reduced from 9% to 6% between April and December 2026, and fully eliminated by January 1, 2027. This follows earlier rebate reductions on solar wafers, cells, and modules.
Short- and Long-Term Effects
• Short term: Manufacturers and overseas buyers are expected to accelerate orders ahead of the rebate removal, potentially leading to a temporary surge in exports.
• Long term: Higher export costs and tighter profit margins, particularly for less efficient producers, are expected to drive industry consolidation and contribute to rising Solar PV prices.
Industry Response
Industry experts note that the policy may push Chinese manufacturers to expand production overseas to mitigate trade barriers and adjust export strategies. Faster growth is anticipated in solar cell exports compared to finished modules.
Trade and Pricing Implications
The China Photovoltaic Industry Association highlighted that export rebates were sometimes absorbed by foreign buyers as indirect subsidies, increasing the risk of trade friction. Eliminating these rebates may help normalize international pricing and reduce trade tensions, albeit at the cost of higher global Solar PV prices.
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